Impactos das mudanças climáticas no calendário de plantio da cultura do milho (Zea mays L.) no estado do Maranhão baseado em projeções climáticas futuras

Abstract

A corn crop is very important for the Brazilian and world socioeconomic scenario. In addition, it may be affected by its high production potential, but it may affect its performance. Therefore, it is clear that maize depends on the interaction with the climate to develop and produce satisfactorily. In this sense, a project of scenarios of future climate impacts has been widely used in recent years, due to the increase of greenhouse gases - GHG and their impact on climate, consequently affecting the agricultural sector. Thus, the objective of this research was to evaluate the scalable risk for maize planting under different climate change scenarios in Maranhão between 2020 and 2049. To simulate how climate change was adopted or the HadGEM2-ES global movement model, global regional ETA model, which in turn induced the simulation of two scenarios, RCP 4.5, which is a more optimistic scenario with GHG mitigation, and the RCP 8.5 scenario, which implies a more pessimistic scenario. The scenarios were analyzed in ten Maranhão RHPs between 2020 and 2049. As projections of the HadGEM2-ES model for the indicated scenarios, the temperature increase in all regions is analyzed. As the temperature increased, water availability was affected, the water deficit increased and the excess water decreased over the next 30 years. If future projections are confirmed, there will be a period of maize planting due to climate risks encountered in the early phase of maize (sowing / emergence) and in the critical period (flowering / grain consumption). In this context, investigations of future trends to try to mitigate or adapt impacts on the agricultural sector in order to reduce production risks are extremely relevant