Bioclimatologia da bovinocultura leiteira em cenário de mudanças climáticas no estado do Maranhão

Abstract

Animal production can both cause and suffer influences from climate change, such changes are perceived as a major threat to the survival of many species. Thus, climate change must be studied and for that, it is necessary that climatic variables be evaluated, such as: temperature, relative humidity. The determination of these values has the objective of characterizing the environment and possibly indicating which are the reflexes in the physiological, metabolic and productive parameters of the animals, looking for a tool that helps in the management decision making. The objective of this work is to determine the stress levels of the environments for the creation of homeothermal animals in the state of Maranhão considering scenarios of climate change. To assess future climate scenarios, data from air temperature projections for the next 30 years, from 2020 to 2049, obtained from the Eta-HadGEM2 ES model applied by CPTEC / INPE, were used, which consisted of two emission scenarios, one intermediate, RCP 4.5 and another pessimist, RCP 8.5. With these data, the Temperature and Humidity Index (ITU), Decline of Milk Production (DPL) and Reduction of Food Consumption (RCA) were determined. Projections of future climate change by Eta-HadGEM2 ES showed the possible variations in the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 to the state of Maranhão for the three regions with the largest cattlhe herd: R5 – Médio Mearim, R7 – Imperatriz, R2 – Baixada