Mudanças e continuidades na política externa brasileira (2003 - 2022): uma análise dos níveis individual, doméstico e sistêmico à luz de Kenneth Waltz

Abstract

This research analyzes Brazilian foreign policy between 2003 and 2022, aiming to understand how party alternations influenced the country's diplomatic orientation. To achieve this, it utilizes Kenneth Waltz's Neorealism as a theoretical framework, incorporating the three images approach - individual, State, and international system - articulated with contributions from authors such as Robert Putnam, Hans Morgenthau, Alexander Wendt, and Hedley Bull. Methodologically, this is a qualitative, historical-bibliographical, and documentary study based on a comparative analysis of the administrations of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer, and Jair Bolsonaro. The results demonstrate that party changes exerted a significant influence on Brazilian foreign policy, causing shifts in diplomatic priorities, the choice of strategic partners, and the level of engagement in multilateral organizations. At the individual level, it was found that the profiles and trajectories of the presidents directly influenced the conduct of foreign policy. At the state level, government coalitions and ideological orientations shaped the country's international insertion strategies. At the systemic level, phenomena such as the Pink Tide, the 2008 International Financial Crisis, and the rise of conservative governments in Latin America conditioned Brazil's possibilities of action. The study concludes that Brazilian foreign policy during the analyzed period resulted from the interaction between individual, domestic, and systemic factors, highlighting a pendular movement marked by continuities and ruptures. Thus, the research confirms that the growing partisan politicization of foreign policy contributed to redefining Brazil's international positioning throughout the first two decades of the 21st century